Strong El Nino may dry India’s monsoon

Forecasters have predicted an unusually intense El Nino gathering strength in the tropical Pacific that could make India’s summer monsoon drier than usual, according to Livemint.

Computer model projections show the event could become the strongest since 1950. The event may break records and is already influencing global weather patterns.

El Nino is a climate cycle marked by hotter-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Columbia University climate and public health researcher Jeffrey Shaman said those warmer waters transfer large amounts of heat to the atmosphere through clouds and heavy precipitation, “similar to how sound waves travel after a bell rings.”

The event is expected to cause drought in Indonesia and Australia, a drier-than-usual summer monsoon in India, and areas of drought and heavier-than-average rainfall in different parts of Africa. It also projected a milder-than-usual winter in the northern United States, wetter conditions in the southern United States and a below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.

“A strong El Nino means that it will be the dominant player influencing seasonal weather patterns through its duration,” said Nathaniel Johnson, a specialist in seasonal climate forecasting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino can raise global average temperatures and could push global temperatures to record levels in 2026 and 2027, after record warm global sea temperatures were recorded for at least two months. Experts said cities should plan for extreme heat and heavy rainfall, while farmers may need to plant different crop varieties depending on the increased likelihood of drought and floods.