Iran Inflation Makes Eggs Safer Than Cash

The economic pressure has sharpened political concerns as officials identify gasoline, unemployment and livelihoods as possible triggers for unrest. Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei has threatened a tougher response to renewed protests, while leaked Basij audio exposed concern about further unrest. Strategic forecaster Kamran Bokhari cautioned that economic misery alone does not bring down governments, especially those with extensive coercive capacity. "It’s a meltdown and we’re watching it in real time," he said.

Stores remain open, supply chains still function and families adapt by cutting spending, changing diets and planning only weeks ahead. Tehran can continue paying its forces in nominal terms, and Iran remains a large economy of roughly 90 million people with extensive borders and black-market networks that can keep some goods moving. The government can prioritize spending and print more money, but Dadpay said it cannot print food, medicine, fuel or other essentials. "When there are not enough products in the society, when there is not enough bread and butter for people, then the money is not going to solve the problem," he said. "It’s just paper. You cannot eat paper."

Iran has enormous oil and natural gas reserves, yet Iranians have faced fuel shortages and long lines at filling stations. Dadpay attributed the fuel problem partly to decades of cheap subsidized gasoline, inefficient domestic cars, fuel smuggling and limited competition, saying there was once enough wealth to keep dividing a smaller economic "cake" among groups but now "there is no cake." Powerful economic networks tied to the IRGC have benefited from monopolies and restricted competition, and Bokhari said the crisis goes beyond sanctions, war or access to money. "The kind of reforms needed means that this regime will not be what it is today," he said.