US Arms Shortage Could Wncourage Russia and China to Attack the US

The Jerusalem Post reported that US weapons stockpiles depleted in the war against Iran could weaken deterrence and embolden Russia and China, citing the New York Times and other reports.

Senior officials and defense experts who spoke to the New York Times said Russia and China could feel emboldened to begin a hot conflict with the United States. Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, called the depleted munitions stockpile a “generational annihilation of the means of conventional deterrence” and said it was impossible not to affect the “decision calculus of Russia and China.”

The United States has burned through offensive and defensive weapons in the Iran war, and Reuters recently reported that it has used “virtually all” of its highly accurate long-range missiles. Each long-range munition costs about $1 million to produce, and sources told the New York Times that the shortage could last beyond the Trump administration’s tenure in office.

The Pentagon has moved ships, aircraft and air defense units from Asia and Europe to the Middle East, the article said. US officials who spoke to the New York Times said the redeployments had “cascading consequences” for troop morale and equipment maintenance. The New York Times reported, according to the article, that Gen. Dan Caine told President Donald Trump about munitions shortages before the war with Iran began, but Trump chose to proceed.

The Washington Post found that in the first month of the Iran conflict the US fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles, over 1,000 THAAD missiles and at least 1,300 tactical ballistic missiles, according to the article. The New York Times reported that the US used at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors and that the Patriot interceptor stockpile is down to 1,700 munitions. Trump said in July that US defense companies were making more munitions than ever before and expanding plants and equipment at record levels.

The article said the shortages have affected Ukraine, Asia and Europe. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said interceptors for Ukraine “could have saved the lives” of at least dozens of people killed in a Russian attack last week, and that the shortage “only encourages Russia to launch such attacks.” The Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing a Defense Department memo, that Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave industry leaders no more than 21 days to present plans to increase production and delivery of critical weapons.