Israeli defense officials surprised by Iran's military resurgence

Israeli defense officials, including IDF and Mossad officials, were shocked by how quickly Iran was rebuilding military capabilities after the early 2026 war, The Jerusalem Post reported.

The military was the lead evaluator of targeting and the damage to Iran’s defense sector. Four months after the main war ended in April, the IDF was seeing faster recovery than expected in several areas, including the ballistic missile threat.

Foreign media reports had challenged parts of Israel’s account as early as March, while IDF expert officials had maintained for months that Iran had been set back by years. The IDF had already been surprised by Iran’s recovery after strikes in October 2024 and January 2025.

According to the report, Israel struck 20 critical missile and military-industrial targets in October 2024, but Iran had restored high-speed ballistic missile production by early 2025. After around 100 such targets were attacked in June 2025, Iran again recovered, and an estimated 1,300 missiles in June 2025 became 2,500 by February 2026.

During the roughly 40-day war in 2026, Israel and the United States said they had set back Iran’s missile and military industry. More than 2,600 missile and military-industrial targets were attacked, and the US and Israel together attacked Iran about 30,000 times.

The IDF told the Post that “throughout the war, the IDF substantially harmed a diverse range of central components relating to Iran's military capabilities.” It said it has since “closely and continuously followed” Iranian rebuilding efforts, but could not give specific assessments because doing so could expose “IDF sources and methods.”